The global, regional, and national burden of thyroid cancer in 204 countries from 1990 to 2021: a systemic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background : Thyroid cancer contributes significantly to cancer-related disability, morbidity, and health-care costs. Conducting a thorough evaluation of both non-fatal and fatal health trends associated with thyroid cancer by age, sex, and geography over time is essential for guiding policy making across 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions and 204 countries and territories.

Methods: This study utilised the established GBD 2021 methodology and a suite of advanced analytic tools to comprehensively assess thyroid cancer incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was leveraged to generate age-, sex-, and location-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer spanning from 1990 to 2021.

Result: The global burden of thyroid cancer has shown mixed trends between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, there were an estimated 250,000 (95% UI 223,000–275,000) new cases, 44,800 (40,000–48,500) deaths, and 1.25 million (1.09–1.38) DALYs attributed to thyroid cancer. While the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) has significantly increased by 41.3% (28.8–54.5) since 1990, the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) has a possible declined, decreasing by 7.0% (–0.1 to 15.8). The age-standardised DALY rate for thyroid cancer also decreased globally by 4.2% (–5.5 to 14.1) between 1990 and 2021. Despite this overall decline in mortality, significant regional disparities exist. In 2021, the highest ASIRs were observed in high-income North America (5.3 per 100,000 [5.1–5.5]), Australasia (4.6 per 100,000 [3.7–5.5]), and high-income Asia Pacific (4.4 per 100,000 [3.9–5.2]). The majority of countries (189) experienced ASDRs below 1 per 100,000 people, while 15 countries had ASDRs between 1.0 and 1.6 per 100,000. Furthermore, there are notable sex-specific differences in DALY trends. High body-mass index is a significant risk factor for thyroid cancer, emphasising the importance of addressing obesity and related health issues.

Conclusion: The rising incidence and prevalence rates of thyroid cancer, alongside a slight decline in mortality and DALYs, provide a complex global landscape of thyroid cancer trends, coupled with significant heterogeneity across regions, nations, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels, and offers invaluable insights into the risk factors, health-care interventions, and outcomes associated with thyroid cancer.